Why Obama Will Likely Beat Romney

The 2012 presidential election is just around the corner, and it appears the two contending parties are gearing up for a knife fight.  With Democrats now treading down a slightly more dirty route with privacy-breaching campaign tracking of Republicans (a tactic that would strangely seem right out of the Republican playbook), and the Romney camp out-fundraising Obama, its obvious that someone’s blood will be spilt.

But while we all soak in the stew of the election rhetoric and endure the shocks of the newswire, everyone from Democrats to Republicans is holding their breath in anticipation of November’s results.  This election is going to be very close.  Recent polls show Obama barely squeezing ahead of Romney by two points, while another has Romney ahead by a point.

Although the election is close, I’d like to illustrate a few points to show why President Obama is still very capable of winning.  The top three issues that will have an impact on the election are the economy, Obomneycare, and possibly foreign policy. Here is the breakdown…

The Economy:

Despite the creeping recovery of the economy, I think Obama can still pull out a win over Romney in this area although it is President Obama’s biggest, if any, weakness. President Obama rescued America’s failing automotive industry, and bailed out the country’s largest financial institutions. Surely without these measures taken, most Americans would still be eating canned food and sleeping in a cardboard box. Mitt Romney on the other hand has an uphill battle if he wants to shake off the image of himself portrayed as a crony-capitalist because of his time at Bain Capital. The Obama camp needs to make certain that the Bain image sticks, and continue to highlight whatever minor successes the administration has had thus far with the economy.

Obomneycare:

Stalemate, enough said.  Romney can’t touch Obama on this one because of the fact that Obamacare is an inspired version of Romney’s healthcare law that he enacted in his own state as governor.  And even though Republicans are harping on the individual mandate as a tax, hoping that an image of Obama as a robber-baron tax-hiker will stick, a recent CBS/New York Times poll shows that only 37% of American favor lowering taxes and cutting spending, compared to the 56% who favor raising taxes and increasing spending. There is also the new poll by USAToday that shows about only 20% of people will actually vote for the candidate that shares their opinion on Obamacare.  This is at a time when about half of Americans support Obamacare. I don’t think that is enough people to turn Obamacare into a nail in the presidential coffin.

Foreign Policy:

Can you hear that?  That’s the sound of the GOP getting Barack-slapped on foreign policy with the death of the worlds leading terrorist, Osama Bin Laden.  Add to that the death of Al Qaeda’s second in command, Abu Yahya al-Libi, and you have a much weaker Al Qaeda.  Not to mention a successful drawdown in Iraq…If I were Romney, I wouldn’t go anywhere near foreign policy issues in the debates…

Of course, there is no crystal ball to predict the outcome of any election, and I surely have my doubts, but my instincts tell me that America isn’t ready to get rid of Barack Obama and steer the nation back in the opposite direction just yet.